Posts Tagged ‘planning’

Strategy as an appreciation of serendipity

Monday, October 12th, 2009

Today is Columbus Day in the US (my 6-year-old son was singing to himself at breakfast, “In fourteen hundred and ninety two, Columbus sailed the ocean blue”), and it’s a good time to think about strategies and objectives. Management consultants will tell you that developing a clear set of objectives and committing to a well-considered strategy to achieve them is essential to success in the business world.

Columbus had a clear objective – open a new trade route to India. At that objective he failed miserably, bumping into a land mass more than 10,000 miles short of his target. Yet, his mistake ended up being far more important in world history than reaching his initial goal would have been.

Like the earth in Columbus’ time, the future of any business is unknown and unpredictable. Therefore, while objectives and strategies are important, so is an appreciation for serendipity. Good things you didn’t anticipate emerge while you’re in execution mode. And being able to recognize these, and adjust your strategy (even possibly your objectives) as a result, is more valuable than being able to stick to a course of action.

Related posts:
Time for a new strategic-planning process
Describe your strategy in a simple picture

If you want to get your head around our energy future, “Energy Shift” is a must read

Monday, May 11th, 2009

I grew up during another era where we were preoccupied with energy: the 1970’s, when the Arab oil embargo first sent gas prices rising and caused lines around the block at filling stations. We’re in another of those eras, with “peak oil” theories and concern for supplies competing with carbon footprints and renewables for our attention.

The energy industry is complex and fast-changing. Don’t agree? People have started calling nuclear energy–the scourge of the 1980’s–a clean technology! But a new book, “Energy Shift: Game-Changing Options for Fueling the Future,” by Eric Spiegel, Neil McArthur and Rob Norton of Booz & Co., is the best single guide I’ve found to explaining our current and possible future energy scenarios.

It’s full of common sense. Even better, it is balanced and impartial (at least from my reading), noting but not indulging activist viewpoints from all sides. If you want opinions, they include sidebar articles in each chapter from others in the field.

If you want to get a better grounding in the past and future of energy and how it will affect you, “Energy Shift” is a book you should read right now.

“Discovery-Driven Growth” – a vital handbook for developing new business

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009

There’s nothing more fun for me than building a new business, whether it’s a startup or a new line of business within an existing company. New businesses are the life-energy of capitalism, the “creative” part of “creative destruction.”

But like most everyone who’s been involved in starting up new ventures, I’ve endured my share of missed opportunities, strikeouts and horror stories. Anyone who’s been in this business for a while knows there are no sure things.

As a result, it’s been gratifying to tune into the developing literature in managing innovation, whether it’s finding out how P&G does it, how to brainstorm more effectively, or the ever-expanding Clayton Christensen library. And I’ve been eagerly awaiting “Discovery-Driven Growth: A Breakthrough Process to Reduce Risk and Seize Opportunity” by Rita McGrath and Ian MacMillan.

McGrath’s article “The Value Captor’s Process” was one of my favorite of 2007. And in “DDG” she and MacMillan describe an entire new-business development process using the same pragmatic thinking.

The book, in page after page, honors innovation as a complex process. Failure of new projects is not a result of poor planning; it is a necessary component of the uncertainty of interplaying markets, technologies, customers and competitors. The tragedy of innovation is not failure, it’s risking huge investments and careers before the business learns whether the potential in the venture can ever be realized.

The typical tools of managing innovation have been detailed, upfront planning, hurdle rates and stage gates. By contrast, McGrath and MacMillan propose an iterative prototyping approach to managing innovation: do as much on paper as possible before “breaking ground” on expensive investments; document assumptions and launch inexpensive experiments to validate or refute them; create rough financial models and refine continuously; monitor progress frequently; compare results to expectations; disengage when the likely outcome of the project falls short of alternative uses of capital and resources; extract value from the results of failed projects.

The managers who use the DDG prescription speak almost like acolytes of the Cynefin framework:

As we go into markets where we’re trying to learn, what we’ve gotten better at is trying small things. If they are successful, we spread them like wildfire. If not, we kill them quickly. (p. 162)

And, in the spirit of “giving it away,” McGrath and MacMillan offer all the tools they reference in the book on their website. This lifts “Discovery-Driven Growth” above the level of a book and into the realm of a vital business resource.

Using this approach may not increase the yield of ideas to successful initiatives–as McGrath and MacMillan write, “remember the plan was uncertain to begin with, so there can be no question of failure–how can you fail if you had no idea of the outcome to start with?” But it is certain that a company that dedicates itself to implementing “Discovery-Driven Growth”’s ideas will improve the yield–possibly dramatically–of profit to investment for new ventures.

Looking ahead to 2009

Saturday, January 3rd, 2009

Like lots of others, I enter 2009 with a bit of anxiety. I have less visibility into the market for my consulting services than I have had in nearly two years.

Yet I have never been as optimistic regarding the soundness & value of the work I'm doing.

Hopefully it's not self-delusion. I don't believe it is.

Yet as I've reflected over what I've done & learned in 2008, I'm more convinced than ever that the time is ripe for what I'm doing.

Which is: working with companies to gather, sort, make sense of their customers' freeform feedback. Using, as it were, these story fragments unlocks a rich store of information unbiased by survey hypotheses and distinguished by candor.

It's a great time, too, to be working in this area. Social tools, especially Twitter, are a new and easily-searched archive of customer emotion.

In the recent Futurelab live blog session, the question was rightly asked about why I'd be interested in peering into people's minds and emotions–isn't what they do more important than what they think?

I didn't answer that question very well that day, but having had time to think about it, I'd say this: I'm not trying to read minds. I'm trying to hear what people say. People talk or write when something happens that is significant to them. If they're using a company's product and say something that's significant to them, it's significant to that company too.

One reason companies don't listen to these stories that they are loud & cacophonous and loaded with noise. They can be rude & inconsiderate. They are in the customer's language & context, not the company's.

But using sensemaking techniques informed by cognitive science & the study of complex adaptive systems (Kurtz & Snowden), the resonances, themes & values in the mass of stories can be found.

And companies can use these resonances to see where their products are generating delight and where they're creating frustration. Where their customer service is working & where it's breaking down. And why some people who call to order a product don't end up doing so, in spite of the company's best efforts. .

The current downturn will shake out companies who hate their customers, who prey on them, who profit through punitive and well-hidden fees & surcharges.

The ones that are left will value every single customer, will treat them respectfully & will really want to understand what those customers want & how they feel.

The approaches I'm working with are a vital tool in this quest. And that's why I'm optimistic for 2009, regardless of what I read in the paper.

Happy New Year!